# Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure

**Authors:** Bent Flyvbjerg  
**arXiv:** [1303.7402](https://arxiv.org/abs/1303.7402)  
**Date:** 2013-03-28  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1303.7402v1/

## Key points

- Increasing concern for economic risk in public policy and management
- Lack of solid empirical foundation for risk assessment and management
- Focus on cost and demand risks in urban rail projects
- Presentation of empirical evidence for valid economic risk assessment and management
- Introduction of benchmarking as a means to improve risk assessment and management
- Use of Copenhagen Metro as a case study
- Application of proposed model to other types of policies and projects
- Enhancement of economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy-making and planning processes
- Minimization of cost overruns and demand shortfalls through informed decision-making
- Contribution to existing literature on improving risk assessment and management practices in urban rail infrastructure development.

## Summary

This paper, titled "Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure," addresses the increasing concern for economic risk in public policy and management. It highlights the challenges faced in effectively dealing with risk due to the lack of a solid empirical foundation for risk assessment and management. The study focuses specifically on cost and demand risks in urban rail projects. To support their argument, the authors present empirical evidence that enables valid economic risk assessment and management of urban rail projects. They also introduce the concept of benchmarking individual or groups of projects as a means to improve risk assessment and management. The Copenhagen Metro is used as a case study to demonstrate this approach. The findings of this research suggest that the proposed model can be applied to other types of policies and projects, aiming to enhance economic and financial risk assessment and management in policy-making and planning processes. By establishing a sound empirical basis for risk evaluation, policymakers can make more informed decisions regarding urban rail projects, ultimately minimizing cost overruns and demand shortfalls. Overall, this paper contributes to the existing literature by providing practical insights into improving risk assessment and management practices within the context of urban rail infrastructure development.