# Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management

**Authors:** Perry C. Oddo, Ben Seiyon Lee, Gregory G. Garner, Vivek Srikrishnan, Patrick M. Reed, Chris E. Forest, Klaus Keller  
**arXiv:** [1705.10585](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.10585)  
**Date:** 2017-05-24  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/arxiv-id/1705.10585v1/

## Key points

- Sea-level rise is a significant threat to coastal communities and infrastructure
- Managing flood risks in these areas requires a complex combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models
- Balancing costs of upgrading infrastructure with potential damages from extreme flood events is challenging
- Risk-based adaptation strategies often overlook uncertainties and trade-offs between competing objectives
- Perry C. Oddo et al. enhanced a decision-analytical model to address trade-offs among conflicting stakeholder objectives
- Traditional mean-centric decision theory may lead to myopic solutions in flood adaptation modeling
- Multi-objective trade-offs expand the decision space and emphasize compromise solutions aligned with stakeholder preferences
- Deep structural uncertainties, particularly related to storm surge parameters, have substantial effects on model outcomes
- Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions critical for flood adaptation strategies

## Summary

The global phenomenon of sea-level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities and infrastructure. As such, effectively managing flood risks in these areas requires a complex combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have highlighted the challenges of balancing the costs of upgrading infrastructure with potential damages from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies overlook crucial uncertainties and trade-offs between competing objectives. In a recent study by Perry C. Oddo, Ben Seiyon Lee, Gregory G. Garner, Vivek Srikrishnan, Patrick M. Reed, Chris E. Forest, and Klaus Keller  a classic decision-analytical model was enhanced to address these issues. The researchers aimed to capture trade-offs among conflicting stakeholder objectives  demonstrate the impacts of structural uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge models  and identify key parametric uncertainties using global sensitivity analysis. The findings revealed that traditional mean-centric decision theory could lead to myopic solutions in flood adaptation modeling. Transitioning from a single-objective approach to one with multi-objective trade-offs significantly expanded the decision space and emphasized the need for compromise solutions aligned with stakeholder preferences. Moreover  deep structural uncertainties were identified as having substantial effects on model outcomes  with storm surge parameters playing a pivotal role. Global sensitivity analysis effectively pinpointed important parameter interactions that local methods might overlook but could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. Overall  this study sheds light on the complexities involved in managing coastal flood risks amidst rising sea levels and underscores the importance of considering uncertainties and trade-offs in developing effective adaptation strategies for vulnerable coastal regions.