# Time Series Vector Autoregression Prediction of the Ecological Footprint based on Energy Parameters

**Authors:** Radmila Janković, Ivan Mihajlović, Alessia Amelio  
**arXiv:** [1910.11800](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.11800)  
**Date:** 2019-10-25  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1910.11800v1/

## Key points

- Sustainability is crucial for global development due to the fight against climate change
- Ecological footprint and biocapacity are essential to understand the effects of climate change
- Carbon footprint is directly linked to energy and fuel sources
- A time series vector autoregression prediction model was used to forecast ecological footprint based on energy parameters
- The dataset includes global yearly observations from 1971-2014, with predictions generated for every variable used in the model for 2015-2024
- Consumption's ecological footprint will continue to increase, but there is a predicted decline in energy consumption from coal sources
- The study's authors presented their findings at the 5th Jubilee Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy (eNergetics 2019)
- This research provides valuable insights into how we can mitigate climate change by reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and transitioning towards cleaner energy sources.

## Summary

The fight against climate change has made sustainability the most crucial aspect of global development. To comprehend the effects of climate change, it is essential to observe the ecological footprint and biocapacity. The carbon footprint, a significant part of the ecological footprint, is directly linked to energy and fuel sources. This paper presents a time series vector autoregression prediction model that forecasts the ecological footprint based solely on energy parameters and determines the relationship between energy and ecological footprint. The dataset includes global yearly observations for the period 1971-2014, with predictions generated for every variable used in the model for 2015-2024. The results indicate that while consumption's ecological footprint will continue to increase, primary energy consumption from different sources will also rise. However, there is a predicted decline in energy consumption from coal sources. This research provides valuable insights into how we can mitigate climate change by reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and transitioning towards cleaner energy sources to reduce our carbon footprint. The study's authors are Radmila Janković, Ivan Mihajlović, and Alessia Amelio who presented their findings at the 5th Jubilee Virtual International Conference on Science, Technology and Management in Energy (eNergetics 2019). This research provides an important understanding of how we can combat climate change through decreasing our dependence on fossil fuels and transitioning to more environmentally friendly forms of energy production in order to decrease our carbon footprint.