# Exoplanet Vision 2050

**Authors:** René Heller, László Kiss  
**arXiv:** [1911.12114](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.12114)  
**Date:** 2019-11-27  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1911.12114v2/

## Key points

- The authors explore the future of exoplanet research by extrapolating from the first 25 years of exoplanet discovery into the year 2050.
- They estimate that almost 100,000,000 exoplanets could be known by 2050 if the power law for cumulative exoplanet count continues.
- The shift in detection methods from radial velocity to transit observations is highlighted.
- A transit and astrometry era dominated by missions like WFIRST and Gaia might follow.
- Astrobiological topics may influence the future direction of exoplanet research, suggesting a focus on habitability or signs of life rather than simply increasing numbers.
- The paper provides insights into potential trends based on current knowledge and technological advancements.

## Summary

In the paper "Exoplanet Vision 2050" by René Heller and László Kiss, the authors explore the future of exoplanet research by extrapolating from the first 25 years of exoplanet discovery into the year 2050. They consider whether it is possible to draw a plausible picture of what lies ahead in this field. The authors begin by discussing the potential growth in the number of known exoplanets. If the power law for cumulative exoplanet count continues, they estimate that almost 100,000,000 exoplanets could be known by 2050. While this number may seem incredibly large, they argue that the power law could plausibly continue until at least 2030 when Gaia and WFIRST missions are expected to have discovered around 100,000 exoplanets. The paper highlights that there has been a shift in detection methods over time. The early era of radial velocity detection has given way to the transit era, where transits of exoplanets across their host stars are observed. Looking ahead, the authors suggest that a transit and astrometry era dominated by missions like WFIRST and Gaia might follow. However, the authors raise an important question: is more necessarily better? They conducted a small survey among astronomers at the "Exoplanet Vision 2050" workshop in Budapest and found that astrobiological topics might influence the future direction of exoplanet research. This suggests that researchers may prioritize studying planets with potential habitability or signs of life rather than simply focusing on increasing numbers. In conclusion, while it is difficult to predict with certainty what lies ahead for exoplanet research, this paper provides insights into potential trends based on current knowledge and technological advancements. It emphasizes both the possibility for continued exponential growth in discoveries as well as considerations about prioritizing astrobiological aspects in future research efforts.