# Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

**Authors:** Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, Jan Brauner  
**arXiv:** [2401.02843](https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843)  
**Date:** 2024-01-05  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/arxiv-id/2401.02843v1/

## Key points

- The "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI" (ESPAI) involved 2,778 researchers from top-tier AI venues.
- Predictions suggest a 50% chance of significant milestones by 2028, such as autonomously constructing a payment processing site and creating music indistinguishable from popular musicians.
- There is a likelihood of unaided machines outperforming humans in every task by 2047.
- Respondents express uncertainty about the long-term implications of AI progress, with concerns about extreme scenarios like human extinction.
- Risks associated with AI advancement include misinformation and authoritarian control.
- Experts emphasize the importance of prioritizing research to mitigate risks and ensure a positive future for humanity.

## Summary

A recent survey titled the "2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI" (ESPAI) revealed predictions from 2,778 researchers who have published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues. These experts were asked about the pace of AI progress and potential impacts of advanced AI systems. The results showed a 50% chance of significant milestones being achieved by 2028, such as autonomously constructing a payment processing site and creating music indistinguishable from popular musicians. There is also a likelihood of unaided machines outperforming humans in every task by 2047. However, there is substantial uncertainty among respondents regarding the long-term implications of AI progress. While most believe positive outcomes are more probable than negative ones, concerns were expressed about extreme scenarios like human extinction. Risks associated with AI advancement were also addressed, including misinformation and authoritarian control. Respondents stressed the importance of prioritizing research to mitigate potential risks and ensure a positive future for humanity. Overall, this survey highlights the complex landscape surrounding AI development and emphasizes the need for continued exploration and discussion on how to responsibly harness its benefits.