NeuralProphet: Explainable Forecasting at Scale

Authors: Oskar Triebe, Hansika Hewamalage, Polina Pilyugina, Nikolay Laptev, Christoph Bergmeir, Ram Rajagopal

NeuralProphet can be installed with pip or from https://github.com/ourownstory/neural_prophet - Documentation is available at https://neuralprophet.com

Abstract: We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

Submitted to arXiv on 29 Nov. 2021

Explore the paper tree

Click on the tree nodes to be redirected to a given paper and access their summaries and virtual assistant

Also access our AI generated Summaries, or ask questions about this paper to our AI assistant.

Look for similar papers (in beta version)

By clicking on the button above, our algorithm will scan all papers in our database to find the closest based on the contents of the full papers and not just on metadata. Please note that it only works for papers that we have generated summaries for and you can rerun it from time to time to get a more accurate result while our database grows.