Predicting Exporters with Machine Learning

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1. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Impact of Business Analytics and Decision Support Systems on e-commerce in SMEs

   Shah J Miah · 2022 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   With the advancement in the marketing channel, the use of e-commerce has increased tremendously therefore the basic objective of this study is to analyze the impact of business analytics and decision support systems on e-commerce in small and medium enterprises. Small and medium enterprises are becoming a priority for economies as by implementing some policies and regulations these businesses could encourage gain development on an international level. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of business analytics and decision support systems on e-commerce in small and medium enterprises that investigate the relationship between business analytics and decision support systems in e…

2. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Skills and Liquidity Barriers to Youth Employment: Medium-term Evidence from a Cash Benchmarking Experiment in Rwanda

   Craig McIntosh, Andrew Zeitlin · 2022 · Économie générale · Pas encore résumé

   Résumé scientifique

   We present results of an experiment benchmarking a workforce training program against cash transfers for underemployed young adults in Rwanda. 3.5 years after treatment, the training program enhances productive time use and asset investment, while the cash transfers drive productive assets, livestock values, savings, and subjective well-being. Both interventions have powerful effects on entrepreneurship. But while labor, sales, and profits all go up, the implied wage rate in these businesses is low. Our results suggest that credit is a major barrier to self-employment, but deeper reforms may be required to enable entrepreneurship to provide a transformative pathway out of poverty.

3. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Self-Selection, University Courses and Returns to Advanced Degrees

   Eleonora Brandimarti · 2025 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   Higher education often requires choosing a bachelor's and a master's degree, yet the returns of these combined choices and the role of courses in different disciplines remain understudied. This paper addresses this gap using detailed data on Italian graduates and university programs. I study the labor market returns to combinations of bachelor's and master's degrees and investigate how curriculum characteristics affect outcomes. I exploit exogenous variation in access to bachelor's and master's degrees to causally estimate the returns to 43 combinations of degrees. I organize the data in a nested model with exogenous variation in admission requirements and explore the preference profile of t…

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   Reinterpreting Economic Complexity: A co-clustering approach

   Carlo Bottai, Jacopo Di Iorio, Martina Iori · 2024 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   Economic growth results from countries' accumulation of organizational and technological capabilities. The Economic and Product Complexity Indices, introduced as an attempt to measure these capabilities from a country's basket of exported products, have become popular to study economic development, the geography of innovation, and industrial policies. Despite this reception, the interpretation of these indicators proved difficult. Although the original Method of Reflections suggested a direct interconnection between country and product metrics, it has been proved that the Economic and Product Complexity Indices result from a spectral clustering algorithm that separately groups similar countr…

5. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Endogenous Labour Flow Networks

   Kathyrn R. Fair, Omar A. Guerrero · 2023 · Économie générale · Pas encore résumé

   Résumé scientifique

   In the last decade, the study of labour dynamics has led to the introduction of labour flow networks (LFNs) as a way to conceptualise job-to-job transitions, and to the development of mathematical models to explore the dynamics of these networked flows. To date, LFN models have relied upon an assumption of static network structure. However, as recent events (increasing automation in the workplace, the COVID-19 pandemic, a surge in the demand for programming skills, etc.) have shown, we are experiencing drastic shifts to the job landscape that are altering the ways individuals navigate the labour market. Here we develop a novel model that emerges LFNs from agent-level behaviour, removing the …

6. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Labor Market Outcomes and Early Schooling: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth

   Pedro Cavalcante Oliveira, Daniel Duque · 2019 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   We use a rich, census-like Brazilian dataset containing information on spatial mobility, schooling, and income in which we can link children to parents to assess the impact of early education on several labor market outcomes. Brazilian public primary schools admit children up to one year younger than the national minimum age to enter school if their birthday is before an arbitrary threshold, causing an exogenous variation in schooling at adulthood. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we estimate one additional year of schooling increases labor income in 25.8% - almost twice as large as estimated using mincerian models. Around this cutoff there is also a gap of 9.6% on the probability of…

7. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

   Tyna Eloundou, Sam Manning, Pamela Mishkin et al. · 2023 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of…

8. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   The global economic impact of AI technologies in the fight against financial crime

   James Bell · 2023 · Économie générale · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   Is the rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence a sign that creative destruction (a capitalist innovation process first theorised in 1942) is occurring? Although its theory suggests that it is only visible over time in aggregate, this paper devises three hypotheses to test its presence on a macro level and research methods to produce the required data. This paper tests the theory using news archives, questionnaires, and interviews with industry professionals. It considers the risks of adopting Artificial Intelligence, its current performance in the market and its general applicability to the role. The results suggest that creative destruction is occurring in the AML industry despite the act…