The Macroeconomic Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms

Résumé : This paper extends a standard general equilibrium framework with a corporate tax code featuring two key elements: tax depreciation policy and the distinction between c-corporations and pass-through businesses. In the model, the stimulative effect of a tax rate cut on c-corporations is smaller when tax depreciation policy is accelerated, and is further diluted in the aggregate by the presence of pass-through entities. Because of a highly accelerated tax depreciation policy and a large share of pass-through activity in 2017, the model predicts small stimulus, large payouts to shareholders, and a dramatic loss of corporate tax revenues following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA-17). These predictions are consistent with novel micro- and macro-level evidence from professional forecasters and sectoral tax returns. At the same time, because of less-accelerated tax depreciation and a lower pass-through share in the early 1960s, the model predicts sizable stimulus in response to the Kennedy's corporate tax cuts - also supported by the data. The model-implied corporate tax multipliers for Trump's TCJA-17 and Kennedy's tax cuts are +0.6 and +2.5, respectively.