What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?"

Authors: Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, Søren L. Buhl

Transport Reviews, vol. 24, no. 1, January 2004, 3-18
arXiv: 1304.4476v1 - DOI (q-fin.GN)

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In their study titled "What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects? ", authors Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L. Buhl present findings from a comprehensive analysis of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel, and road projects totaling US$90 billion. The research focuses on identifying factors contributing to cost escalation in these infrastructure projects by examining the impact of project implementation phase length, project size, and type of project ownership. The study reveals a significant correlation between cost escalation and the duration of the implementation phase. Delays and extended timelines during this phase pose substantial risks for cost overruns. This highlights the importance of proactive decision-making and efficient planning to mitigate these risks. Furthermore, the research shows a trend towards larger projects over time with bridges and tunnels experiencing higher percentage cost escalations as project size increases. This emphasizes the need for careful consideration when undertaking large-scale infrastructure projects. The study also challenges common assumptions about the influence of project ownership on cost escalation. While it is often believed that private ownership may be more effective in controlling costs compared to public ownership, the findings indicate that accountability mechanisms play a more critical role in determining cost outcomes. Overall, this study underscores the significance of addressing potential delays and escalating costs through proactive measures during all stages of transport infrastructure projects. These findings have significant policy implications for stakeholders involved in infrastructure development and management.
AI-generated keywords: Cost Overrun Transport Infrastructure Projects Implementation Phase Project Size Project Ownership

AI-generated Key Points

  • Study by Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L. Buhl on cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects
  • Analysis of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel, and road projects totaling US$90 billion
  • Factors contributing to cost escalation: project implementation phase length, project size, type of project ownership
  • Significant correlation between cost escalation and duration of implementation phase
  • Importance of proactive decision-making and efficient planning to mitigate risks
  • Trend towards larger projects over time; bridges and tunnels experience higher percentage cost escalations with increased project size
  • Need for careful consideration when undertaking large-scale infrastructure projects
  • Influence of project ownership on cost escalation: accountability mechanisms are critical determinants rather than public or private ownership
  • Significance of addressing potential delays and escalating costs through proactive measures at all stages of transport infrastructure projects
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Abstract: This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of causes of cost escalation in transport infrastructure projects. The study is based on a sample of 258 rail, bridge, tunnel and road projects worth US$90 billion. The focus is on the dependence of cost escalation on (1) length of project implementation phase, (2) size of project and (3) type of project ownership. First, it is found with very high statistical significance that cost escalation is strongly dependent on length of implementation phase. The policy implications are clear: Decision makers and planners should be highly concerned about delays and long implementation phases because they translate into risks of substantial cost escalations. Second, it is found that projects have grown larger over time and that for bridges and tunnels larger projects have larger percentage cost escalations. Finally, by comparing cost escalation for three types of project ownership--private, state-owned enterprise and other public ownership--it is shown that the oft-seen claim that public ownership is problematic and private ownership effective in curbing cost escalation is an oversimplification. Type of accountability appears to matter more to cost escalation than type of ownership.

Submitted to arXiv on 16 Apr. 2013

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