Flood Prediction Using Machine Learning Models: Literature Review

Authors: Amir Mosavi, Pinar Ozturk, Kwok-wing Chau

Water 2018, 10, 1536
74 pages, 10 figures, 6 tables
License: CC BY 4.0

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Floods are devastating natural disasters that can cause significant loss of life and property damage. The complexity of floods makes them difficult to model; however, the advancement of flood prediction models has greatly contributed to risk reduction and policy suggestions. In the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods have become increasingly popular among hydrologists due to their numerous benefits and potential for improving prediction systems by mimicking the mathematical expressions of flood processes. This paper aims to demonstrate the state-of-the-art ML models in flood prediction and provide insights into the most suitable approaches. It reviews literature on ML models benchmarked through qualitative analysis and evaluates and compares their robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed. Additionally, it explores major trends for improving the quality of flood prediction models such as hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization. Furthermore, this paper discusses two important aspects related to ML algorithms: robust data enrichment techniques like implementing distribution functions or recovering missing variables; and generalization problem which refers to how well an ML algorithm can predict cases beyond its training dataset range. The methodology involves identifying peer-reviewed articles in top-level subject fields with performance evaluation and comparison of ML methods based on quality measures such as source normalized impact per paper, CiteScore, SCImago journal rank, and h-index. Overall this literature review provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art ML methods used in flood prediction highlighting their strengths and weaknesses while identifying effective strategies for improvement.
AI-generated keywords: Flood Prediction Machine Learning Risk Reduction Performance Evaluation Hybridization

AI-generated Key Points

  • Floods are devastating natural disasters that cause loss of life and property damage
  • Flood prediction models have contributed to risk reduction and policy suggestions
  • Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly popular among hydrologists for flood prediction
  • ML models in flood prediction are reviewed and benchmarked through qualitative analysis
  • Robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed of ML models are evaluated and compared
  • Major trends for improving flood prediction models include hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization
  • Robust data enrichment techniques and generalization problems are discussed in relation to ML algorithms
  • Peer-reviewed articles in top-level subject fields are used for performance evaluation and comparison of ML methods
  • The literature review provides a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art ML methods in flood prediction, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and strategies for improvement.
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Abstract: Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex mathematical expressions of physical processes of floods, during the past two decades, machine learning (ML) methods contributed highly in the advancement of prediction systems providing better performance and cost-effective solutions. Due to the vast benefits and potential of ML, its popularity dramatically increased among hydrologists. Researchers through introducing novel ML methods and hybridizing of the existing ones aim at discovering more accurate and efficient prediction models. The main contribution of this paper is to demonstrate the state of the art of ML models in flood prediction and to give insight into the most suitable models. In this paper, the literature where ML models were benchmarked through a qualitative analysis of robustness, accuracy, effectiveness, and speed are particularly investigated to provide an extensive overview on the various ML algorithms used in the field. The performance comparison of ML models presents an in-depth understanding of the different techniques within the framework of a comprehensive evaluation and discussion. As a result, this paper introduces the most promising prediction methods for both long-term and short-term floods. Furthermore, the major trends in improving the quality of the flood prediction models are investigated. Among them, hybridization, data decomposition, algorithm ensemble, and model optimization are reported as the most effective strategies for the improvement of ML methods.

Submitted to arXiv on 07 Aug. 2019

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