Inference and Influence of Large-Scale Social Networks Using Snapshot Population Behaviour without Network Data
Authors: Antonia Godoy-Lorite, Nick S. Jones
AI-generated Key Points
- Study focuses on influence of social networks on population behaviors like voting and vaccination
- Social networks play crucial role in shaping behaviors but are often hidden and difficult to analyze
- Large-scale behavioral data can provide valuable insights, even if they are snapshots at specific timepoints
- Researchers propose method combining inference of network structure with networked model of human behavior using snapshot data
- Leveraging parameterized geometric socio-demographic network model and spin-based model of behavior
- Approach applied to EU Referendum and two London Mayoral elections, offering predictions and interpretations of homophilic inclinations
- Approach enables crude calculus linking inequalities and social preferences to behavioral outcomes
- Examples provided for potential network-sensitive policies that could reduce polarization in elections by addressing factors like income inequality, social temperature, and homophilic preferences
- Study presents innovative method for understanding influence of social networks on population behaviors using limited snapshot data
- Offers insights into how network structures shape behaviors and implications for designing effective policies considering social dynamics to reduce polarization in elections.
Abstract: Population behaviours, such as voting and vaccination, depend on social networks. Social networks can differ depending on behaviour type and are typically hidden. However, we do often have large-scale behavioural data, albeit only snapshots taken at one timepoint. We present a method that jointly infers large-scale network structure and a networked model of human behaviour using only snapshot population behavioural data. This exploits the simplicity of a few parameter, geometric socio-demographic network model and a spin based model of behaviour. We illustrate, for the EU Referendum and two London Mayoral elections, how the model offers both prediction and the interpretation of our homophilic inclinations. Beyond offering the extraction of behaviour specific network structure from large-scale behavioural datasets, our approach yields a crude calculus linking inequalities and social preferences to behavioural outcomes. We give examples of potential network sensitive policies: how changes to income inequality, a social temperature and homophilic preferences might have reduced polarisation in a recent election.
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