Language Models Trained on Media Diets Can Predict Public Opinion
Authors: Eric Chu, Jacob Andreas, Stephen Ansolabehere, Deb Roy
AI-generated Key Points
- The study proposes a new approach to measuring public opinion by using language models adapted to online news, TV broadcast, or radio show content that can emulate the opinions of subpopulations that have consumed a set of media.
- The researchers used U.S. nationally representative surveys on COVID-19 and consumer confidence as ground truth for opinions expressed to validate this method.
- Results indicate that this approach is predictive of human judgments found in survey response distributions and robust to phrasing and channels of media exposure.
- This method is more accurate at modeling people who follow media more closely and aligned with literature on which types of opinions are affected by media consumption.
- Probing language models provides a powerful new method for investigating media effects, supplementing polls, and forecasting public opinion.
- Neural language models can predict human responses with surprising fidelity, suggesting a need for further research in this area.
- The authors of the study are Eric Chu, Jacob Andreas, Stephen Ansolabehere, and Deb Roy.
Abstract: Public opinion reflects and shapes societal behavior, but the traditional survey-based tools to measure it are limited. We introduce a novel approach to probe media diet models -- language models adapted to online news, TV broadcast, or radio show content -- that can emulate the opinions of subpopulations that have consumed a set of media. To validate this method, we use as ground truth the opinions expressed in U.S. nationally representative surveys on COVID-19 and consumer confidence. Our studies indicate that this approach is (1) predictive of human judgements found in survey response distributions and robust to phrasing and channels of media exposure, (2) more accurate at modeling people who follow media more closely, and (3) aligned with literature on which types of opinions are affected by media consumption. Probing language models provides a powerful new method for investigating media effects, has practical applications in supplementing polls and forecasting public opinion, and suggests a need for further study of the surprising fidelity with which neural language models can predict human responses.
Tools for this paper
Ask questions about this paper to our AI assistant
You can also chat with multiple papers at once here.
⚠The license of the paper does not allow us to build upon its content and the AI assistant only knows about the paper metadata rather than the full article.
The previous summary was created more than a year ago and can be re-run (if necessary) by clicking on the Run button below.
⚠The license of this specific paper does not allow us to build upon its content and the summarizing tools will be run using the paper metadata rather than the full article. However, it still does a good job, and you can also try our tools on papers with more open licenses.
Similar papers summarized with our AI tools
Navigate through even more similar papers through a
tree representationLook for similar papers (in beta version)
We compare the title and abstract with papers indexed in our database. For arXiv papers, we search within the same category; for DOI and other sources, we search across sources and subjects. You can rerun the search as our database grows.
Disclaimer: The AI-based summarization tool and virtual assistant provided on this website may not always provide accurate and complete summaries or responses. We encourage you to carefully review and evaluate the generated content to ensure its quality and relevance to your needs.