Making the leap I: Modelling the reconstructed lensing convergence PDF from cosmic shear with survey masks and systematics

Abstract: The last few years have seen the development of a promising theoretical framework for statistics of the cosmic large-scale structure -- the theory of large deviations (LDT) for modelling weak-lensing one-point statistics in the mildly non-linear regime. The goal of this series of papers is to make the leap and lay out the steps to perform an actual data analysis with this theoretical tool. Building upon the LDT framework, in this work (Paper I) we demonstrate how to accurately model the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of a reconstructed Kaiser-Squires convergence field under a realistic mask, that of the third data release of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We also present how weak lensing systematics and higher-order lensing corrections due to intrinsic alignments, shear biases, photo-$z$ errors and baryonic feedback can be incorporated in the modelling of the reconstructed convergence PDF. In an upcoming work (Paper II) we will then demonstrate the robustness of our modelling through simulated likelihood analyses, the final step required before applying our method to actual data.